Wednesday, July 03, 2013

Informed Analytical Speculation



Retaining quality levels in a period of accelerated growth is a challenge for all businesses. So it is interesting to observe how the quality of analysis and discussion being broadcast by the 5by5 Podcast Network is still improving in parallel with their ongoing increase in sheer quantity of programming output. Two of their programmes from this week are worth noting here. 

Earlier this week, in Screentime episode 40, Horace Dediu extrapolated on where Apple’s disruptive television strategy could ultimately progress towards, based on current evidence and information. He had insightful observations about a strategy where our iOS devices could ultimately become our ‘televisions’, with our existing legacy hardware TV screens relegated to merely being their display accessories.

Then Dediu did the same thing yesterday, on The Critical Path episode 91, exploring the range of possible jobs that the nascent iWatch product could be hired to do, and mapping out some of the potential strategies around the iWatch. He identified some of the opportunities for building a novel multi-billion market atop the existing global wristwatch industry. In the same way that iPhone created all-new markets and ecosystems that upended the stasis within the mobile industry in the latter half of the last decade. (I also note this morning that Apple have just hired the former Yves Saint Laurent CEO to work on some ‘special projects’. I am guessing that move is iWatch-related.)

Both podcast episodes are great listens if you are in any way interested in Business Disruption Theory. They make a superb double-header if you can organise the time to listen to them back-to-back.

Too much of what passes for technology journalism today is little more than rumour-gathering, so it is refreshing and educational to listen to a truly analytical mind construct a coherent and plausible narrative of possibilities based on facts to hand. Yes it is still speculation, but it is a very reasoned and informed class of analytical speculation. Even if none of Dediu’s projections end up being realised in quite the way he envisages at present, there is still much to learn just by following his trains of thought.

Links
Horace Dediu on Twitter
Horace Dediu on Asymco