Informed Analytical Speculation

Retaining quality levels in a period of accelerated growth is a challenge for all businesses. So it is interesting to observe how the quality of analysis and discussion being broadcast by the 5by5 Podcast Network is still improving in parallel with their ongoing increase in sheer quantity of programming output. Two of their programmes from this week are worth noting here. 

Earlier this week, in Screentime episode 40, Horace Dediu extrapolated on where Apple’s disruptive television strategy could ultimately progress towards, based on current evidence and information. He had insightful observations about a strategy where our iOS devices could ultimately become our ‘televisions’, with our existing legacy hardware TV screens relegated to merely being their display accessories.

Then Dediu did the same thing yesterday, on The Critical Path episode 91, exploring the range of possible jobs that the nascent iWatch product could be hired to do, and mapping out some of the potential strategies around the iWatch. He identified some of the opportunities for building a novel multi-billion market atop the existing global wristwatch industry. In the same way that iPhone created all-new markets and ecosystems that upended the stasis within the mobile industry in the latter half of the last decade. (I also note this morning that Apple have just hired the former Yves Saint Laurent CEO to work on some ‘special projects’. I am guessing that move is iWatch-related.)

Both podcast episodes are great listens if you are in any way interested in Business Disruption Theory. They make a superb double-header if you can organise the time to listen to them back-to-back.

Too much of what passes for technology journalism today is little more than rumour-gathering, so it is refreshing and educational to listen to a truly analytical mind construct a coherent and plausible narrative of possibilities based on facts to hand. Yes it is still speculation, but it is a very reasoned and informed class of analytical speculation. Even if none of Dediu’s projections end up being realised in quite the way he envisages at present, there is still much to learn just by following his trains of thought.

Links
Horace Dediu on Twitter
Horace Dediu on Asymco

Dicta-Blog

I tried dictating a blog post this afternoon for the first time. The new Mountain Lion OS now allows me to easily dictate into the laptop. I had the house to myself this weekend, so I could easily grab a quiet hour to natter away. As part of my experiment I composed the blog post on the spot, rather than work from draft notes as I usually do. I had been listening to lots of podcasts doing chores over the weekend, so I did a brain-download on that topic.

A few initial observations (some about the technology and some about my writing style):

An Apple iOS Idea: Proximity Links Between Devices

Establish a spatial link between iPads and iPhones.

Just this week I heard of two more people forgetting their iPads. One was left on a plane; gone forever, and the second was left in a hotel room, but luckily was recovered after a breathless drive back across the city. What about adding a feature allowing people to establish a temporary spatial link between their iPad and their iPhone? That could reduce in the number of iPads left in hotel rooms, conference rooms, planes and taxis in the first place.

This would work by allowing you to define a minimum separation distance between their two devices. Then place a notification alert on top of that. For example:
Warn me if <"iPad Name"> is more than <"10 metres"> away from this iPhone in the next <"6 hours">.
Ideally, both the class of notification and its intensity would escalate as you moved further away from the forgotten device in question.

This could serve as an early warning system, preventing many lost iPads. It would compliment the Find My iPhone/iPad feature which is used *after* any loss. My assumptions here are that a significant number of iPad owners also carry iPhones and that such people are most likely to still possess their iPhone in scenarios where they have left their iPad behind.

An additional feature would be the option to dismiss the notification alert for a set amount of time:
Activate again in <"12 hours">.
This would address scenarios such as leaving the house without your iPad on a day when you are intentionally leaving it behind.

UPDATE
Two weeks later, I have come across the Zomm Wireless Leash. A hardware solution to aspects of this problem, but one requiring you to carry an additional accessory. (Sourced via the Unofficial Apple Weblog.)

A Novel Feature Idea for iOS

iOS should present a default device owner’s avatar image to any apps that request one.

Getting started on any new social media platform – or on one of the majority of apps which increasingly require an initial login to create a presence within the app’s community – is now a pretty efficient and streamlined process. If you do not want to login with your Facebook or Twitter identity credentials [1] then you just need to provide a user name and a password (sometimes an email address is not even needed any more) and you are good to go. You get a generic avatar icon to speed your way directly into the service: completing your user profile by adding a photo and any other information can always happen at any time later on. Because including your avatar photo is not a step within that initial on-ramping workflow one can see a lot of default avatars being used in the early stages of community building.

Steve

What a day. What a day. We all knew this day was coming. But now that it has we are still surprised. No, far more than surprised: shocked.

Steve relentlessly championed design. He cared about beauty in form, he championed simplicity and elegance in operation.

In my career, I have always used and loved his creations. Not only have they transformed the design industry, but they have repeatedly redefined the possibilities of what each of us could achieve as designers ourselves. 

In recent years the true scope of his ambition has been realised and (without overstatement) has reshaped society.

He wanted to leave “a dint in the universe” and is one of the few who have actually changed the world: my world, your world, all our worlds.

Thanks Steve.

POSTSCRIPT

These were the three best Steve Jobs obituary posts I read yesterday. I would like to share them with you.  John Gruber  |  Jason Calacanis  |  Horace Dediu

My Twenty Primary iPod/iPhone Apps

As people do seem to be asking me about iPhone/iPod apps quite a lot these days, I am posting this here so that in future I shall have something I can link to. Borrowing the format established by the excellent First and 20 website I have listed the twenty apps that are most useful to me and thus have earned a spot on my home screen. I am forever adding and subtracting apps off my iPod, but this core set remains consistent and any new app needs to really make an impression on me to knock one of these twenty off my first screen in SpringBoard.

Ticking the Boxes

The Apple App Store has launched. With midnight having passed in New Zealand and customers in the southern hemisphere now able to purchase their second generation iPhones, Apple have pushed the necessary iTunes upgrade. This gives us a preview of the applications that we are going to be able to buy here in Ireland from midnight onwards.

My initial thoughts are how important the usage-generated lists of Top Apps and Top Free Apps are going to prove to be in helping users to decide which applications to install. At least in the iTunes Music Store the design of the album covers afford more visual cues about the nature of what you are buying. Browsing the Productivity section, it looks like this may not be the case with some categories of icons in the AppStore. Good luck with deciding between ‘To Do’ and ‘Todo’.


Disclaimer: Before anyone comes back to me on it, I do need to acknowledge my role in overseeing the rebranding of the Topline chain of hardware stores last year. Said rebranding giving them a new check-mark symbol on a purple octagon. Perhaps I ought to sell them on the idea of their own custom iPhone application...

Error Message Screens

Error messages are one of the minor inconveniences of our online navigation experience. They are never welcome on our screens. But, when something does go wrong, we do need to know probable causes and remedial actions. How well an organisation presents information when everything goes pear-shaped speaks volumes for its approach to its customers.

Steve Job’s keynote for Macworld on 15 January 2008 began at nine in the morning, San Francisco time. That is five in the evening here in Dublin; still within my working hours. I was able to keep a weather eye on the proceedings with a Twitter browser window open in the corner of my screen. At least four of the people in my Twitter feed were live-blogging the keynote event.


Obviously they were not alone, as the level of Twitter activity (twittering? tweeting? twoottering?) coming from Macworld quickly began to put a serious load on the Twitter infrastructure. Very quickly the updating of posts began slowing down noticeably and after acting erratically just stopped completely about five minutes before the keynote started.


Reloading brought up this nicely crafted error screen. The little bird reminds me of that ironic smiling puppy with the electrical cord in his mouth that is used on The Simpsons whenever an in-show TV station experiences ‘technical difficulties’ or a presenter’s on-air meltdown. The little Twitter bird may be just as cute, but he does not make me feel any better.


Further reloads and the cutesy illustrated error message was replaced by this far less sugar-coated version. Obviously the problem was escalating. Devoid of all decoration, at least this screen presented me with some potential options. Although, given the scale of the meltdown going on, none of those three links actually worked

There is a definite argument that a disappointing customer experience can be mitigated (somewhat) by considered, thoughtful error screens that inform the user. But all of that is absolutely no substitute for getting the product delivery right in the first place. In this case engineering the server-side to take the expected load.

Update, June 2008


Twitter has learned some lessons and put measures in place to take the strain for Steve' Job’s next keynote at WWDC 08. The Twitter infrastructure made it through that keynote without falling over.

iPhone, uPhone, We All Phone

Seemingly Apple launched a mobile phone this week. You may have read about it. But seriously...
The rumour mill has been predicting the iPhone ever since the video iPod was announced. Apple’s watertight communications policy meant that no hints or leaks were forthcoming from Cupertino. Astute tech journalists were able to piece together some possible details about the product from analysis of Apple’s recent patent applications. Industry chatter about material orders and production schedules of the various Asian subcontractors provided more information. The notional phone was a recurring conversation topic on TWiT for weeks. Such is to state that what was being announced on Tuesday was surely the worst-kept secret in the tech industry.

But when what was still, by definition, a rumour can have a material effect on the telecommunications sector, I believe that is worth taking note of. Like it or not, varying degrees of rumour and gossip are strong currency within the blogosphere. Much more so than in traditional media. It therefore seems worthwhile thinking about how organisations, or individuals for that matter, manage their reputation within such an environment. Carefully crafted statements and press releases are increasing worth very little in the face of the collective opinion and the wisdom of the crowds.

Another fascinating aspect of his iPhone story is just the shear volume of online coverage and commentary that it has generated, and far beyond the usual Apple advocates. Nearly every blog that I read regularly has posted something about it this week. And this is not just tech blogs: I am talking about a broad spectrum of marketing blogs, branding blogs, graphic design blogs, web design blogs and a few literary author’s blogs in the mix as well. (This could equally just reflect on the fact that 95% of the blogs I read are written by white males with some in-built geeky pro-gadget bias.) More to the point, this has to be the first time I can recall a product announcement getting a full-page article in the editorial spread of The Irish Times. But for just plain silliness it will be hard to top the link I received for Kottke’s iPhone size comparison post with photos of a cut-out iPhone placed beside similar products. Unintentionally hilarious.

Delicious Tags: iPhone | Apple | Mobile
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Shiney New Mac

Its arrived at last, and yes it is very impressive. Now I just have figure out how to make the bloody thing work.